Reality Panic

True, video games are a hit driven business. Just like movies, books, music, etc. It is really hard to predict what will turn out to be a hit before its released - such is the nature of hit driven markets…

Coincidentally, I ran a 2-hour workshop at E3 on how to determine the hit-potential of a game, how to support original IP, how publishers manage risk, etc. (Notes from which I hope to post in the near future.) It became pretty evident that a lot of future decisions are made on past sales data - as many developers already know. And, aside from focus groups, there’s just not a lot of tools in the predict-a-hit toolbox. This is one of the major contributing factors to publishers’ collective risk aversion (ie, it becomes a real gamble to bet a $20million production budget on something you have no real ability to predict is going to sell well).

Anyway, that’s context for the fact that, more than ever, I’ve heard publishers say something to the effect of “I regret not signing that game”. In chatting with several publisher folks at this year’s E3, conversation invariably turned to what cool games were being shown. This, in many cases, has led to publishers admitting that they “had a chance” to sign a given game some time ago, but that they just didn’t think it had potential. But, under the bright lights of E3 (and many more months of development), now it appeared that said game had potential.

I got into that kind of discussion a lot.

There’s something deeper going on here. Is it a question of tools to predict hits? Is the fun factor simply too elusive? Or, are the wrong people making the decisions?

…quite literally. Just before heading out for E3, I completed work on a handmade sandbox (with attached toy chest, no less) for my son, Gabriel.

Indeed, it was a proud moment as a father - amplified by the fact that it was my first “woodworking” project since building a jewelry box for my mom in high-school (ie, I’m good with a keyboard, but not so handy with power tools).

Adding a twist to the usual Tonka truck gameplay mode, I dumped in a few bags of marbles and little plastic animals to serve as “hidden treasure”. Having these little “easter eggs” has added an extra dimension to play in the sandbox, especially when friends come over and discover them as well. Anyway, the gamer/designer in me thought that would be a cool “feature” to add without delaying the production schedule by much ;)

The “live” Katamari was emblematic of the ever-expanding and all-consuming E3. Indeed, this was the largest E3 ever, with over 70,000 folks in attendance! And, I am proud to say that I survived my 10th show - barely ;)

Of course, the focus was on the console announcements. But, the emphasis did seem premature as the games (ie, the most important part of the next-gen equation) were not quite ready for prime-time… Sadly, I just did not get a lot of time to check out the show floor, so I missed out on a lot. Perhaps that’s for the best, as so much of the content on display was derivitive - with a few rare exceptions (eg, Okami, Shadow of the Colussus, Odomo, etc). A recent Hollywood Reporter article gets at the crux of the next-gen scale issue (ie, bigger budgets, larger teams, less game, less risk/innovation, etc).

Of course, the IGDA’s members-only party was a blast. Nearly 900 members RSVP’d for this rare-for-E3 developer focused event. It was nice to move out of the hotel’s basement lounge and up to the poolside terrace. Hmm, perhaps that’s emblematic of something too…

Anyway, on to the fun. Check out all the pics from the trip.

Frederick Brassard, Cedric Orvoine and Martin Carrier from Ubisoft Montreal to cheer on Ghost Recon’s showing during the Xbox 360 launch event.

Drink the Cool-aid: A lot of vision bla bla from Robbie Bach. Dude, just show us the cool demos!

James Regan (Ubisoft) and Sony spy Bret Mogilefsky at the Xbox launch party.

Guha Bala (Vicarious Visions), Greg Zeschuk (BioWare), Nehme Frangie (Vicarious Visions), Karthik Bala (Vicarious Visions) and Ray Muzyka (BioWare) chilling out at the Xbox event.

At center, Will Wright (Maxis) waves his hands vigorously, mesmerizing the audience with how he creates innovative games. It was an insightful panel on creating AAA games.

IGDA Party: Board chair Jesse Schell (in brown blazer) chats up various IGDA members…

IGDA Party: Claude Reeves and Sebastien Lavier from Ubisoft Montreal hanging with Dan Irish.

IGDA Party: Marc Saltzman, Nathaniel Loh (Toys for Bob), Sean Kaupinnen (Kohnke), Jason Buhrmester and IGDA press queen Sibel Sunar (Bohle) having a good time :)

IGDA Party: Like rare creatures, the game developers gather in the urban jungle of LA…

IGDA Party: Rudy Geronimo (IGDA), Warren Currell (Sherpa Games) and Richard Lemarchand (Naughty Dog) risking a big shove into the pool.

IGDA Party: As a “designated boozer”, Tobi Saulnier (1st Playable) makes Zach Schlappi (EA LA) work for an extra free drink ticket.

IGDA Party: Music men Jesper Kyd, Bob Rice, Cris Velasco, Chris Rickwood hanging out.

IGDA Party: Noah Falstein (The Inspiracy) laughing with/at Brian Sullivan (Iron Lore).

IGDA Party: Richard Lemarchand (Naughty Dog) chats up myself and fellow IGDA staffer Rudy Geronimo.

IGDA Party: It would not have been a real party if at least one developer hadn’t jumped into the pool - sadly, it was to fetch his cell phone…

?, ?, Dave Perry and ? proud of Shiny’s Into the Pixel entry from Matrix: Path of Neo.

Korea challenges the world: KGDI president, Jong Sik Woo intros the panel discussion on MMO games during a special dinner event.

Ugh! This is the line for Zelda… I figured I’d just see everything online, or on TV. No time to wait!

No one seems quite so interested in the booth beefcakes…

The game’s not even out yet, and there’s Death Jr. plush toys. Very cool.

Rajesh Rao (Dhruva), Tobi Saulnier (1st Playable) and Daniel James (Three Rings Design) chat at the E3 speakers reception. Close inspection uncovers a Lorne Lanning still very interested in the game space…

Nicolas Gaume (Lagardere Active) on his soapbox during the France reception at the hip Standard hotel. Not sure why Olivier Goguel is laughing so hard…

One of the few really wacky/interesting games, Yoot Saito’s Odama is one to watch.

The folks from Koei admitted that this samurai armor was getting the most attention in their booth - at least it wasn’t a bikini ninja or thonged bushi ;)

As a fan of Jet Set Radio and urban culture, I’m hoping Mark Ecko’s combination game, Getting Up, will live up to the hype.

Master FPS marksman, Fatal1ty impressed the crowed.

Another innovative game with Sim-style breakaway potential, Peter Molyneux’s The Movies.

The grand final: To me, the most impressive game was Capcom/Clover’s Okami. I must play this game!

Another year, another E3 survived. I do believe this was my tenth show! I’m working on my summary “report” and usual pictures while trying to catch up with piles of work. Meanwhile, I thought I’d share some quick tips on how I survive these kinds of events:

1 - Buy a bottle of BlisterShield! This stuff really works, and saves your feet (and other areas as needed) from blistering and chaffing. No joke, this is my number one piece of advice - a big show like E3 really is a marathon.

2 - Bring a huge stack of business cards, without the ability to swap cards, you’ve pretty much wasted your trip.

3 - Don’t drink. Going to parties and other social activities is key to building your personal network, but don’t bother with the (often) freely available booze. It increases your chances of doing something stupid/regrettable and you’ll likely suffer in the morning, especially with little sleep.

4 - Bring some multi-vitamins. Your body will suffer from the physical demands of a big show, and the usual E3 diet (ie, no time for breakfast, quicky lunch, party snacks for dinner, etc) is less than optimal.

5 - Don’t waste your time on the show floor. The media/press are so pervasive that everything you’d want to see and check-out is usually more accessible online (or even on TV). I spent less than 3 hours on the floors (1hr for South, 1hr for West and about 30mins for Kentia). Checking out the games is cool/important, but spending too much time is wasting your chance to be doing business, meeting with peers, etc.

6 - Have your work phone forward to your cell phone. Remembering to check both your work and cell voice messages is just a pain…

7 - Stay close to event. You’ll have to book your hotel early, but staying as close as possible to the event will save you time from sitting in traffic, etc. Plus, you’ll save on car/taxi expenses.

Hmm, well that’s all I can think of for now. Please add a comment with your own survival tips!

As with any studio, the closing of Elixir was sad to hear about. It certainly kicked off some debate on the further viability of the independent game development sector in the UK.

Via Jurie: Oddly enough, it seems all the Elixir folks (even Demis himself) were drinking away their sorrows. Of course, I don’t really know what’s going on in all the pics, but the “I liked my job” sign sharing is telling.

Will be interesting to see what impact a shortened work week will have in the UK, if it gets passed by the EU…

Just sent out an RSVP deadline notice/reminder for the IGDA’s members-only party at E3 to the member list. Last year’s party was a blast, and we expect this one to be ever more exciting - not least of which is due to the +100% growth in RSVPs!

Looking over the current RSVP list, I can’t help but be giddy at all the cool folks from the development community we’ll be bringing together. The IGDA’s role and ability to bring together people from all corners of the industry is a truly exciting aspect of our work.

Also, looking over the list, and noting some of the people and companies represented, gives me comfort. You’d be surprised (despite the growth and progress of the IGDA), how many developers see the org as overly catering to non-pros or that no “real” developers are members of the org. A few studio copy/pasts from the list: BioWare, Obsidian, Treyarch, NovaLogic, Eidos, Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Sony, EA, Epic, Firaxis, Ensemble, Stormfront, Blitz, Pandemic, Blizzard, Relic, Naughty Dog, Sega, Capcom, Harmonic, Savage, Insomniac, Crytek, gameLab, etc, etc, etc…

Alas, I think we’ve got the party thing under control, but our communications/branding strategy can use some tweaking…